| Summary |
These papers, presented in a special session at the International Symposium on Society and Resource Management in June 2011, explore the transdisciplinary field of futures research and its application to long-range environmental analysis, planning, and policy. Futures research began in the post-World War II era and has emerged as a mature research field. Although the future of complex social-ecological systems cannot be predicted, these papers show how futures research can offer perspectives and methods that help researchers, decisionmakers, and other stakeholders explore alternative futures and gain environmental foresight--insight that can inform decisionmaking on environmental challenges. One author points out that the study of the future can be thought of as the study of change. He discusses three types of futures: the expected future, a range of plausible alternatives, and the preferred future, which decisionmakers can shape depending on their choice of action. An example of the methodology of futures research is provided in another chapter, which illustrates the use of scenario development. Another chapter identifies global trends that could dramatically change social-ecological systems. The second half of the collection applies the methods and approaches of futures research to natural resource management. A global and a regional scenario illustrate scenario planning, a methodology that produces sets of plausible futures that could develop from current conditions depending on alternative human choices and drivers of change. Another example demonstrates how analysts can incorporate global scenarios and modeling, and scoping of trends and issues, into forest inventory data to gain insight into the regional forests of tomorrow. A chapter on linking global scenarios with assessments of U.S. natural resources as required under the Resources Planning Act considers both opportunities and challenges. Lessons learned from an analysis of futures research conducted since the 1970s at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are also offered. These papers suggest that the perspectives and methods of futures research hold great potential for developing the foresight needed to meet environmental challenges of the 21st century. |
