||Introduction -- Current models of health care cost projections -- Modeling medical technology -- Factors affecting health status -- Participants' views on needed research.
||This report is a summary of the January 2010 workshop, Improving Health Care Cost Projections for the Medicare Population. The workshop was convened by the Committee on National Statistics (CNSTAT) of the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (DBASSE) of the National Research Council (NRC). The workshop was to consider major classes of projection and simulation models that are currently in use and the underlying data sources and research inputs for these models. It was also to consider areas in which additional research and data are needed to inform model development and health care policy analysis more broadly, such as: the relative merits of various cost projection approaches with regard to short-term versus long-term projections, the ability to model what-if scenarios, and other features for the major modeling categories; trends in socioeconomic status and in mortality and morbidity and how they affect health care cost projections; medical technology as a driver of costs and the policy responses to this trend; factors affecting health status, such as obesity, disability, and chronic diseases, that may affect costs over the longer term; addressing uncertainty and bias in model projections.
|General note||Title from PDF title page.|
|Bibliography note||Includes bibliographical references.|
|Funding information||This study was supported by Contract No. N01-OD-4-2139, TO # 213 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Institute on Aging. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (Number SES-0453930).|
|Issued in other form||Print version: Improving health care cost projections for the Medicare population. Washington, D.C. : National Academies Press, ©2010 0309159768|